In summary
- SOL Analysis — D1 close at 184.11 USDT sits below the 20/50/200 EMAs, keeping pressure on buyers.
- RSI at 40.41 on D1 → sub-50 reading signals a bearish-leaning, range-bound tone.
- MACD histogram negative on D1 (−1.53) → momentum remains weak; sellers still have the edge.
- Bands — Price trades in the lower half of Bollinger Bands (D1), suggesting persistence of downside probes.
- Regime — D1 neutral, while H1 and M15 are bearish → SOL Analysis favors caution until momentum improves.
Multi-timeframe SOL Analysis
Daily SOL Analysis (D1)
Trend — Price at 184.11 sits below the 20-day EMA (198.15), 50-day EMA (204.39), and 200-day EMA (187.13). This alignment shows sellers still dictating trend, with the 200-day EMA acting as nearby resistance. For official project details visit Solana’s official website.
RSI — The RSI(14) at 40.41 remains below 50, indicating muted buying power; bounces could fade unless momentum improves.
MACD — MACD line (−8.76) is under its signal (−7.23) with a negative histogram (−1.53), confirming soft momentum and limited follow-through on rallies. To put it in a broader context, see this SOL technical analysis page on TradingView.
Bollinger — Bands center at 203.06 with upper 241.52 and lower 164.61. Price near the lower half suggests ongoing pressure, but not panic; volatility pockets can still spark sharp counter-moves.
ATR — ATR(14) at 17.50 implies wide daily swings; risk sizing should respect this range.
Pivot — D1 PP at 184.95, R1 at 186.61, and S1 at 182.44. Trading just below PP hints at a slight bearish tilt intraday, with 182.44 as the next downside checkpoint.
Hourly (H1)
Bias — Close at 184.11 below EMA20 (187.47), EMA50 (188.16), and EMA200 (191.02) keeps the intraday trend bearish. RSI(14) at 39.34 echoes weak demand.
Momentum — MACD line (−1.04) below signal (−0.35) and negative histogram (−0.69) show sellers maintaining control.
Volatility — Bollinger mid 188.88 with lower band 181.04; price leans near the lower band, typical of grind-down phases. ATR(14) at 2.38 points to moderate hourly ranges.
Pivot — PP 184.19, R1 184.49, S1 183.80; price hovering near/under PP keeps pressure on supports.
M15 micro
Structure — Close at 184.12 sits under EMA20 (185.58), EMA50 (187.19), and EMA200 (188.29): micro-trend bearish. RSI(14) at 36.64 shows sellers probing; however, the MACD histogram barely positive (0.02) hints at slowing downside pace. For a look at recent news and price dynamics, check out today’s price rebound is not enough for SOL.
Bands/ATR — Bollinger mid 185.59 with lower 183.72; hugging lower band suggests weak bids. ATR(14) at 0.93 indicates tight, choppy moves intraday.
Takeaway — D1 regime is neutral but tilted bearish via indicators, while H1 and M15 are clearly bearish. Overall, this SOL Analysis argues for a cautious stance until the 184.95–187.13 zone is reclaimed.
Key levels — SOL Analysis
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 204.39 | EMA50 (D1) | Major resistance; medium-term trend cap |
| 203.06 | Bollinger mid (D1) | Mean reversion target; resistance |
| 198.15 | EMA20 (D1) | First dynamic resistance |
| 187.13 | EMA200 (D1) | Long-term pivot; resistance overhead |
| 186.61 | R1 (D1) | Initial breakout trigger |
| 184.95 | Pivot Point (D1) | Intraday inflection |
| 182.44 | S1 (D1) | First support |
| 181.04 | Lower Bollinger (H1) | Intraday support |
| 164.61 | Lower Bollinger (D1) | Deeper support if selling accelerates |
| 241.52 | Upper Bollinger (D1) | Upper volatility bound |
For an in-depth look at other price trends and comparisons, see this SOL price correction analysis and the recent Solana, XRP, and Hedera in great shape coverage.
Trading scenarios for SOL Analysis
Neutral (main)
Trigger — If price oscillates between 182.44 (S1) and 186.61 (R1) while D1 RSI stays below 50.
Target — Mean-revert toward 184.95 (PP), with potential whipsaws near 187.13 (EMA200) if momentum firms.
Invalidation — A decisive break and close below 182.44 or above 186.61.
Risk — Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× ATR(14) ≈ 8.75–17.50.
Bullish
Trigger — Reclaim 184.95 (PP) and close above 186.61 (R1), then push through 187.13 (EMA200).
Target — 198.15 (EMA20) first, then 203.06 (Bollinger mid) if momentum improves.
Invalidation — Return below 184.95 (PP) would weaken the setup.
Risk — Volatility remains elevated on D1 (ATR 17.50); stops 0.5–1.0× ATR to contain downside.
Bearish
Trigger — Close below 182.44 (S1) opens 181.04 (H1 lower band); sustained pressure could extend toward 164.61 (D1 lower band).
Target — 181.04 near-term, then 164.61 on acceleration.
Invalidation — Recovery above 184.95 (PP) would neutralize immediate downside.
Risk — Use 0.5–1.0× ATR(14) bands to manage squeeze risk during bounces.
Market context
Macro — Total crypto market cap stands at 3750193407840.6665, with a 24h change of -0.05620599524140095%. BTC dominance is 57.53636081936824%. The Fear & Greed Index prints 25 (Extreme Fear).
Implication — High dominance and fear typically sap risk appetite for altcoins; this SOL Analysis therefore leans conservative until breadth improves. For traders of solana perps, liquidity may cluster around well-defined pivots.
Ecosystem
DeFi — Raydium AMM fees slipped 1d by -3.26% and -21.01% over 7d, while Orca DEX jumped 63.3% 1d and 178.28% over 30d.
Meteora DLMM gained 37.14% 1d but fell -20.45% over 7d. SolFi rose 61.46% 1d yet remains -74.5% over 30d. HumidiFi dropped -15.76% 1d and -50.52% 7d but is +56.56% over 30d.
Read — Mixed fee trajectories suggest rotational flows across Solana DEXs; in context of this SOL Analysis, activity appears selective rather than broad-based.
Note — not provided
Mixed fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR
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